SENSEX strategy: staying bullish

Last month gave Indian investor huge return over last three years. This effect can be visualised by huge hike in profit numbers of service industry as well as Automobile Industry's sales figures of September,2010 have given clear cut indication that SENSEX is wan to reach its old hight or more than that.

Here I would like to explain some estimations for future as under:

 

Credit growth: Systemic credit growth upped 19%, riding on 3G and BWA auction, and is likely to stay strong YoY. Expect 22% credit growth for FY11.

Interest rates: Systemic interest rates likely to rise with next regulatory push. We expect policy rates to rise 75bps with lending rates lagging deposit rates.

Fiscal deficit: Expect consolidation at ~5% of GDP: We believe the government’s attitude towards fiscal discipline and the excess cash flowsavailable warrant a sharp reduction in its borrowing programme.

Strong corporate earnings growth: Our Sensex EPS for FY11E is Rs1,053 and for FY12E, Rs1,260. We note the index is trading at 17x FY11EPS. Our EPS estimates are ahead of consensus by1.8% and 1.2% for FY11E and FY12E.

Volatility measures: Indian IVs:US VIX has been on a decline through the Euro market crisis — points to relatively lower risk aversion for Indian equities. MSCI India index has outperformed MSCI ACWI index on a 12-month relative basis while MSCI EM has underperformed.

Sensex trading band: Sensex valuations
(1) Sensex dividend discount model: Indicates the range 16,360-21,189. We believe the 7.5-8.0% 10-year bond yield could mark peaking of current interest rate cycle.

(2) P/BV: Positive divergence in the premium.Currently the Sensex is trading at 2.8x P/BV FY11, 17% disc. to its LT average P/BV of 3.4x. When it reverts to the mean, an index level of 21,250 is implied.

(3) PE basis: On our FY12E earnings of Rs1,260, we expect the index to trade between 17,640-22,680. On projecting the Sensex on earnings yield and current 10-yr bond yield, we do not expect the market to go below 16,100 in FY10, except on a global sell-off.

Domestic Consumption Story
Domestic consumption is strong and resilient but rate sensitive. We expect domestic consumption to pan out more rapidly and domestic sectors/stocks that reflect this will witness expansion in valuation premium v/s the markets.

Large cap companies with low leverage will continue to command similar premium valuations. We recommend focus on large caps and larger niche mid-caps: We are OVERWEIGHT Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Financials (upgraded from Neutral), Healthcare and Software and UNDERWEIGHT Energy, Materials, Telecom and Utilities.

This all gives indication that SENSEX will reach to 22K level in near future. So here we have fantabulous opportunity to put our money in this bullish marke and change the term savings into the WEALTH.

All the best!!!

Automobile Industries - "The New Cacoethes of Indians"

            Last three days, I continuously listning about various automobile companies' enormous performance. In three days break I've seen many Indian news channels, all were talking about new emerging star amongst industries like Power, Infrastructure, Banking and Pharma. Today evening when I was coming back from college I saw 'Toyota Prius' on Ahmedabad most famous road - S.G.Highway, which inspired me to write this blog.
             It's really delirious approach of Indians towards buying vehicles for their comfort or showing their status in society. Whatever reason is Automobile sector is my and I am sure most of my young friends' favourite sector. Although Finance Minister denoted about to heighten the duties on Automobile products but it will not cause any declination in sales of Automobiles, only thing harrasing this sector is increasing Fuel prices (but it is necessary to fluctuate people from fuel run vehicles to battery charged vehicles).

Last Month For Automobile Sector
             Month of February was remained frightful for Automobiles as some of the hghest sales record was came in this month. I think in the season of recession such sales are recorded so this month always be remenber as 'Golden Month'. This year both months remained nice Hyundai, Maruti, TATA, Bajaj, etc. shown sales increase more than 40%.

Some record breaking sales of Indian Automobiles are as under:

• Maruti Suzuki India LTD. sold a total of 96,650 vehicles in Feb. 2010 which also includes 11,885 vehicles exported. Over all Maruti Suzuki shown 58.6% hike in sales.
• Hundai  also sold 54,617 vehicles and recorded 70% hike.
• Tata and Bajaj also in queue of recording their high sales like 62% and 77% respectively.
• Mahindra's Domestic sales increased by 35.7%, where as their export increased by 228.5%. This is just Wow.
• Toyota India recorded 101% growth with selling 5993 vehicles in all categories.

Mind Blowing Event By Mahindra
         
            Also last month remained as adventurous month for SUV 4*4 owners. In desert of Rajsthan Mahindra Automobiles had arranged a 'Adventurous Desert Event' for SUV owners. This was open invitation for all passionate drivers across the country, they can bring their Scorpio, Bolero, Aarmada, Xylo for this event. In this events all the participents were provided with trophy and certificates by Mahindra.

Reaons of Sales hike in Automobile Sector

1. Main reason of increased sales may be increase in thebasic payroll, revised salary scales by Central Govt. Of India. According to this payroll companies and State Goverments also adjusted their employee's payroll. This impact is shown now, people have more money to spend and the car is the first prefference for Indian families to show their wealth.
2. Auto Show in Delhi also may be one important reason for this increased sales. I can say that almost all comanies of South-East Asia and all major companies of the world presnted their best and up coming models in the Auto show.
3. Last month all the companies had conentrated on the Indian Models i.e. Indians likes small cars to drive in high traffic areas. I can say this because lots of small cars models launched during first two months of 2010. VW's Bettle and Polo; Chevrolet Beat; Hyundai's new model of Getz; Maruti's new sports model of A-Star, Ritz and Eco; etc.
4. Indians are the top buyers of two wheelers in the world. They always attratcted towards it due to many reasons. Last month Bajaj launched Pulsar 135CC DTS-i bike, Honda launched its New Activa, Mahindra launched two gearless scooters named Rodeo and Duro

Up coming monnths for automobile industry

• TVS motor company announced in the Nov, 2009 that they are coming with two new models. They are about to launch TVS Jive 110CC motorbike and auto geared TVS Wego.
• Relio Quick auto mall 2010 Mumbai from 5th to 7th March will show SUVs, ATVs, new models of cars and bikes.
• Honda is going to launch new Accord V-6 in India. Honda Accord has its own class in attracting luxurious customers and it continuously succeeding
• To compete with the Tata's Nano, Maruti decided to launnch one lac rupee car Suzuki Cervo. It seems tough competitor for Tata Nano as this car is more featured than Tata's.
• Again Hona want to experiment with its luxurious cars City and Civic. They are coming with updated version and sports version for both the models.
• Toyota is going to launch its hybrid Sedan, Toyota Prius in Q2 of FY 09-10. primararily it launched as testing in some cities.
• Tata has shown its new version of Tata Safari at Delhi Auto Expo, but model wass covered with cloth only head and tail lights were visible. They said this model will be launched in the middle of 2010.
• Nissan coming with their small car March in March 2010

         
           This all has shown drastic effect on stock prices of each of the company's share. Tata, Maruti Suzuki, Bajaj, Hero Honda sharea are outperforming continuously from last few days. yesterday Tata motors was grew by 10% and today also it has shown hike by 1.5%. Finance Minister denoted in his about to increase in cost of cars but in form of componsate prices today Maruti, Ford India, Tata has cut down basic cost of their models so prices will be compansated which shows they want to sustain this sales increase for lon span of time. Because of which Investors should invest in automobile shares without any fear.

Diabetes N Diabetes, all around us

Now days I am at home because of end term break in my college. It's HOLI time for all Indian families, so I visited many of my school mates and other friends. During this days I found around 4-5 new cases of diabetes in families which I am knowing, this influenced me write a blog on Diabetes - 'a Devil of 21st centuary'.

Diabetes is mainly two types: 1] Diabetes Mellitus and 2] Diabetes Insipidus.

1] Diabetes Melitus: It is of two types: A) Insulin dependent Diabetes Mellitus and B) Non-Insulin dependent Diabetes Mellitus.

A) When pancreas produces little or no insulin it gives rise to Type-1 Insulin Dependent Diabetes. It is most serious form of diabetes. In this case insulin remains in the blood and so insulin injections need to be taken to regulate sugar metabolism. It usually develops in the first twenty years of life. When beta cells of the pancreas (that make insulin) are suddenly destroyed, Type-1 diabetes develops. In type-1 diabetes the immune system that protects our body instead attacks the pancreas and destroys beta cells. As a result production of insulin is affected and diabetes develops due to the build up of sugar.

B) It is the most common form of diabetes known as maturity onset diabetes and rarely develops before forty years of age. The symptoms are mild and so the condition remains undetected for many years. Usually a diabetes test (urine test or blood test) reveals the presence of diabetes. Patient will have normal levels of insulin in the blood. But the body cells refuse to accept insulin and so sugar accumulates in the blood. Usually overweight people develop Type-2 diabetes.

2] Diabetes Insipidus: Diabetes insipidus (DI) is a disease that causes frequent urination. The large volume of urine is diluted, mostly water. To make up for lost water, a person with DI may feel the need to drink large amounts and is likely to urinate frequently. Because of the excretion of abnormally large volumes of dilute urine, people with DI may quickly become dehydrated if they do not drink enough water. With this disease other diseases like fever, vomiting, or diarroea also irritate person.

Both types of Diabetes more or less similar characteristics it's difficult to distinguish orally, by which disease person is suffering.


Symptoms of Diabetes (Both types)

• Body cells can't produce required ATP (adenosine triphosphate - energy particle for body), so in primary stage cody suffers by nausea and vomiting
• In later stage, body cells to get energy starts breaking muscle cells into small tissues which causes fast body weight loss
• In type II diabetes, irregularity of the cell metabolism leads to produce more energy from Fat than Glucose metabolism, hence body goes in negative calorie effect
• Polydipsia: when Glucose level increases in blood, brain receives signal of more water and person feels thirsty and drinks more water
• Polyuria: Due to increase glucose level in blood and blood regulatory system tries to excrete more amount of glucose along with water is also excreted
• Polyphagia: Type II diabetes produces more Insulin because of more blood glucose level and Insulin also responsible for Hunger, so it leads to increased hunger
• Weight Fluctuation: Both type of Diabetes' indirect effect on the Fat and Protein metabolism. Imbalanced Protein and Fat metabolism leads to Weight Fluctuation
• Blurry Vision: Hyperosmolar hyperglycemia nonketotic syndrome is the condition when body fluid is pulled out of tissues including lenses of the eye, which affects its ability to focus, resulting blurry vision
• High supply of Glucose to Brain and other organ gives feeling of being more tired, so person become more irritated and angry
• Infections: Excess Blood glucose level sends only signals of More blood glucose level to the brain and Immune system of the person not sends signals of other infections, so antibody do not activate and infection causes disease

• Poor Wound Healing: High blood sugar resists the flourishing of WBC (white blood cell), responsible in healing process, so due to poor circulation of WBC healing process get affected

Now you can realise what all are effect to diabetes patient has. I am sure amongst our family there is one person is present wh o is suffering by diabetes. So give sympathy to those and make them fit by following tips and exercises:

Tips:

• Consult a Doctor and make sure that your weight is in accordance to your height by calculating BMR. If not then do suitable steps suggested by Doctor
• According to your BMR create a smart eating plan. Person can create eating plan by him/herself or consult Doctor. Do not eat anything and anytime
• To improve daily life try to get nutraceuticals, which balances your daily need of nutrition in your meal
• Improve personal environment which has big impact on our exercise, eating habit and regularly Check up with Doctor
• Always carry one blood sugar level check up machine to check Blood sugar level and plan your meal accordingly (not only at home carry wherever you go)
• With Blood Sugar level, always maintain your cholesterol, Blood Pressure and Triglysride level under control
• Diabetes patients required 8-9 hour sleep regularly
• Do not change your Doctor frequently also not change your type of Medicine i.e. Ayurvedice, allopathic, homeopathic etc.
  

Excercises:

• Gymnasium regularly at least for 3/2 hours
• Person can also walking or jogging in morning oe evening time for 2 hours
• Aerobics is also one nice way for women to exercise daily and regularly
• Now days Yoga and Pranayam have better impact on controlling Diabetes by Ayurvedic process

My mother is also Diabetes patient. I always insist her to take regarding her medicine, diet plan and exercise but who cares (lols). She is not aware about the consequences of the diabetes but I forced her to obey some simple rules from my side,so Diabees is in control from several months.
I am sure you always take care for your friends and dear ones.

I think this blog post will help you to increase your knowledge regarding Diabetes Causes, Effects and Preventions. Always influence you friends and family members to take certain care to control Diabetes as mentioned above.